Ex-IDF intel chief after Natanz incident: Maximum pressure on Iran hasn’t worked

Israeli TV Channel 12 defense analyst Ehud Ya’ari said that, with the Mossad’s apparent leaks to Hebrew media taking responsibility for the incident at Natanz, “We’re getting close to the moment” where Tehran will have no choice but to respond with a military strike of its own.

Ya’ari noted that Iran has been restrained until now, despite the November 2020 assassination of its former nuclear chief Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, which it blamed on Israel, and successive Israeli strikes in Syria. Israeli intelligence expressed fears several months ago that Iran was reaching a boiling point and might soon lash out, he said.

Ya’ari added that, despite the various setbacks attributed to Israel, Iran has continued to make progress with its nuclear program.

He said Iran’s statements about Sunday’s incident indicated that officials there believed the outage was a deliberate attack and they had a right to respond.

If they call it “nuclear terror, it means damage was caused to the centrifuges and uranium stockpiles there,” he surmised.

Less than a week after a mysterious attack on an Iranian vessel in the Red Sea, an incident occurred at the Natanz nuclear facility for the second time in less than a year amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel.

On Sunday evening, unnamed intelligence sources were cited by a number of Hebrew news outlets as saying that the Mossad was involved in the attack, which was reportedly more severe than Iran had indicated.

According to Channel 13 news, the cyberattack caused “severe damage at the heart of Iran’s enrichment program.”

The timing of the attack was also said to not be incidental, coming the day after Iran celebrated its National Nuclear Technology Day; the day after Iranian scientists began operating more powerful centrifuges; and amid ongoing talks in Vienna aimed at revitalizing the flagging 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers, which Israel fiercely opposes.

Amos Yadlin, the former IDF chief of Military Intelligence, said he was concerned about Iran’s nuclear program on Sunday, after a major power cut that halted uranium enrichment at Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility.

Recent weeks have also seen escalating tensions and accusations of maritime sabotage between Israel and Iran.

Yadlin said an electricity cut caused by a cyberattack would not be a significant problem if Iran has backup systems, such as generators, and would be more of a message to Tehran.

If the suspected attack also hit the facility’s backup power systems, “it would be more serious,” and would likely take Iran several months to recover from, he said.

Iran has the necessary knowledge to continue forward with its nuclear program, regardless of the damage, he added.

He said former US president Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign had not slowed down Iran’s nuclear efforts.

“The maximum pressure campaign did not stop them, it did the opposite,” he said.

Israel’s intelligence and military were on top of the situation, but the Israel diplomatic efforts were flagging, as Netanyahu focused on politics and his trial and the government remain mired in a political stalemate following last month’s election, Yadlin said.

Former CIA director James Woolsey said last month that Washington is underestimating the Iranian nuclear threat, that Tehran already has the components necessary to build a bomb, and that US intelligence and nuclear inspectors could miss signs Iran was breaking out toward a nuclear weapon.​